EIA forecasts significant decreases in US liquid fuel demand during the primary half of 2020. As a result of COVID-19 travel restrictions and significant disruptions. To business and economic activity. EIA expects that the most important impacts will occur. Within the second quarter of 2020, before gradually dissipating over the course of the subsequent 18 months.
US Oil
US motor gasoline consumption is predicted to fall by 1.7 million b/d. From
the primary quarter of 2020 to a mean of seven .1 million b/d within the second quarter. Before gradually increasing to eight .9 million b/d within the last half of the year. Jet fuel consumption will fall by 400,000 b/d from. The primary quarter of 2020 to an average of 1.2 million b/d within the second quarter. US distillate heating oil consumption would see a smaller decline, falling by 200,000 b/d to an average of 3.8 million b/d over an equivalent period.
In 2020, EIA forecasts that US motor gasoline consumption will average 8.4 million b/d, a decrease of 9% compared with 2019, while jet fuel and distillate heating oil consumption will fall by 10% and 5%, respectively over an equivalent period.
For the April–September 2020 summer driving season, EIA forecasts US regular gasoline retail prices will average $1.58/gal, down from a mean of $2.72/gal last summer.
EIA forecasts US petroleum production will average 11.8 million b/d in 2020, down 500,000 b/d from 2019. In 2021, EIA expects US crude production to say no further by 700,000 b/d. If realized, the 2020 production decline would mark the primary annual decline since 2016.
The US Gas
In March, the Henry Hub gas cash price averaged $1.74/MMbtu. Warmer-than-normal temperatures in March reduced demand for space heating and put downward pressure on prices.
EIA forecasts that prices will begin to rise at the top of the second quarter of 2020 as US gas production declines and gas use for power generation increases the demand for gas.
EIA expects residential consumption of gas to average 12.9 bcf/d in 2020, down 5.8% from the 2019 average primarily due to warmer-than-normal weather within the half-moon . Similarly, EIA expects commercial consumption of gas to average 9.0 bcf/d in 2020, a decrease of seven .1%, as a results of warm weather and therefore the slowing economy. Industrial gas consumption will average 22.9 bcf/d in 2020, about an equivalent as in 2019. the economic forecast is down from the previously expected 6.5% growth within the March STEO.
